Sep
25
Written by:
Andy Thornton
Friday, September 25, 2009 10:42 PM
Uchimura vs. Hambuchen vs. Horton…
So how much do Hambuchen’s weaknesses hurt him? And does Horton really have what it takes to challenge for the world all-around title? Well I did some research to show you the answers to these questions! I put together a chart below that shows the highest scores I could find on each event from any competition this year for Uchimura, Hambuchen, and Horton – this included the Japan Cup where Uchimura and Hambuchen competed head-to-head (Uchimura won by 0.65), the American Cup, the national championships for all three gymnasts, and Hambuchen’s recent Champions Trophy competitions. Then I totaled them up to get a theoretical comparison of their all-around potentials:
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FX
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PH
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SR
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V
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PB
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HB
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AA
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Uchimura
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16.25
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15.15
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15.05
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16.25
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15.6
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15.7
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94.0
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Hambuchen
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15.65
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14.1
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15.2
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16.3
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15.55
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16.1
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92.9
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Horton
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15.55
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13.2
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15.8
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16.3
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15.2
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15.9
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91.95
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Interesting…so it’s clearly POMMEL HORSE that is keeping both Hambuchen and Horton away from Uchimura. You’ll notice that Hambuchen’s all-around is about 1 point behind Uchimura, and that’s exactly how far back his pommel horse is as well. Similarly, Horton’s total is 2 points behind Uchimura, and that’s exactly how far his pommel horse is away from Uchimura’s too! So if we look at the other five events combined, these three guys are incredibly evenly matched.
To make it even clearer, here are these three guys’ totals WITHOUT pommel horse:
Uchimura 78.85
Hambuchen 78.80
Horton 78.75
WOW!!! Pretty amazing that I could find the best score on every event from every competition I could find for these three guys, and if I take out one event, all three end up within one tenth of each other! One thing to keep in mind is that Jonathan Horton fell BOTH DAYS on pommel horse at USA’s, and thus he is the only one of the three counting a fall among those scores. This means he’s well capable of adding at least a point to the above total, which would put him dead even with Hambuchen.
Thus, it essentially appears that both Hambuchen and Horton are each one point away from Uchimura if all three hit all of their routines. Remember that ONE POINT EQUALS ONE FALL. One fall from Uchimura is certainly not unfathomable…remember he fell twice on pommel horse in the all-around finals in Beijing. Looking at the above scores, there’s no question that Horton can score higher than that 15.2 on p-bars…he really had a little trouble both days on that event. And I also think it’s finally time that Horton ADDS A HALF TWIST to his handspring double front on vault. He does the double front very easily and has gotten extremely consistent on it – I think the half out would be no problem and he could spot the ground and land it just as well or better. It would add four tenths to his total – I think that would be worth it.
Looking at these scores, Uchimura may not be quite as far ahead of Hambuchen and Horton as I originally thought. One point is certainly surmountable in a six-event all-around effort where a fall alone counts one point, and I think both Hambuchen and Horton will be really hungry to go after this title. So I would say that that top three world all-around contenders are each within one fall of each other, and if Hambuchen and Horton can improve their pommel horse a little more in the next few weeks, things could get really interesting!
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4 comments so far...
Re: Uchimura vs. Hambuchen vs. Horton...who is the real front runner for gold?
There is (at least) one complicating factor. If you used any U.S. Nationals scores for Horton or any Japanese Nationals scores for Uchimura, those may incude "bonus" points for difficutly. I don't believe Hambuchen competed in any competition in which those were awarded.
The algorithm used in the U.S. for awarding difficulty bonus is available on the USAG website, but good luck in figuring out how the Japanese award theirs.
And don't forget Kazuhito Tanaka...
By Jigokudayu on
Sunday, September 27, 2009 12:46 PM
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Re: Uchimura vs. Hambuchen vs. Horton...who is the real front runner for gold?
1st Andy good analysis. even though the us athletes have a bonus on their start values, we all know that the E-panel in the United States is the most strict in the world. Alot of our gymnasts get really low E-panel scores in U.S. Championships, so the bonus balances their scores out.
By Anonymous on
Monday, September 28, 2009 8:56 AM
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Re: Uchimura vs. Hambuchen vs. Horton...who is the real front runner for gold?
Horton still seems a discernable notch below Hamm/Wei.
By TCO on
Wednesday, October 07, 2009 10:16 AM
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Re: Uchimura vs. Hambuchen vs. Horton...who is the real front runner for gold?
In addition to bonus on D scores, there were also some differences in deductions at U.S. nationals (listed in the same chart referenced above), so D scores under the FIG code are easy to figure out, but not a comparison on E scores - not sure I'd consider U.S. judging the strictest around either.
By Anonymous2 on
Friday, October 09, 2009 3:42 PM
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