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Nov
9
Written by:
Andy Thornton
Monday, November 09, 2009 2:01 AM
When does history say Kyla Ross will peak?
It’s Kyla Ross’s breakout year. In addition to being the 2009 U.S. junior national champion and 2009 U.S. Classic champion, she can now add the title of 2009 Junior Pan American Games champion as well. We’ve seen the same string of wins many times before – all the great ones seem to burst on the scene in a similar fashion.
She just turned 13 on October 24th. Of course, this means she’ll still be age ineligible at both the 2010 and 2011 world championships, but will be eligible for the 2012 Olympic Games. In the past, gymnasts turning 15 the year before the Olympics were allowed to compete in those world championships in order to gain the experience necessary for the Olympics the following year. However, a new rule has abolished this exception, so that gymnasts who turn 16 the year of the Olympics will have no prior world championship experience behind them. This will be the case with Kyla Ross.
So is there any kind of formula for determining when a star junior like Kyla Ross will peak? History tends to be amazingly reliable in gymnastics, so let’s look at some of our past junior national champions and see when they seemed to reach their peaks. Here I’ve included nearly every single junior national champion for the past 29 years, the age at which they first won a junior national title, and the time at which they seemed to reach the peak of their career. I find statistics like these quite fascinating…you’ll probably be amazed at how consistent this sport tends to be!
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Junior National Champion
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Year of Junior National Championship
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Age at first junior national win
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Peak
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Age at peak
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Diane Durham
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1981 and 1982
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13
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1983
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15
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Kristie Phillips
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1985 and 1986
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13
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1987
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15
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Brandy Johnson
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1987
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14
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1989
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16
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Juliet Bangerter
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1988
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14
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1990
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16
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Kim Zmeskal
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1989
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13
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1992
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16
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Hilary Grivich
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1990
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13
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1991
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14
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Anne Woynerowski
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1991
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14
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1991
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14
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Lanna Apisukh
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1992
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13
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1994
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15
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Jennie Thompson
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1993
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12
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1999
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18
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Dominique Moceanu
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1994
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12
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1998
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16
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Mina Kim
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1995
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13
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1995
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13
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Vanessa Atler
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1996
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14
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1999
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17
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Marline Stephens
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1997
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14
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1999
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16
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Morgan White
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1998
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15
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2000
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17
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Kristal Uzelac
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1999, 2000, 2001
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13
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2001
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15
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Carly Patterson
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2002
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14
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2004
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16
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Nastia Liukin
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2003, 2004
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13
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2008
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18
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Natasha Kelley
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2005
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15
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2006
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16
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Shawn Johnson
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2006
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14
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2008
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16
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Rebecca Bross
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2007
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14
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?
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?
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Jordyn Wieber
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2008
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13
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?
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?
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Kyla Ross
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2009
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12
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?
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?
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So if we tally up the averages, the average age at the time of winning a first junior national title was 13.4. The average peak age of each of our junior national champions has been 15.7. Hmmm…. that’s younger than the required age of 16 to compete at world or Olympic competition. Great! The gymnasts can go to their first world championships or Olympic Games while they’re on the way down from their peak. Makes a lot of sense, doesn’t it?
These statistics also indicate that, for American female gymnasts, the average time lapse between winning a first junior national title and reaching peak competitive form is about 2.3 years. So we can expect Rebecca Bross to be in peak form this year, Jordyn Wieber to reach her peak in 2010, and Kyla Ross to reach her peak in 2011.
And yes, of course I know it isn’t quite that simple. But if you look up and down that list, it’s remarkable how many times the time lapse appears to be about 2 years. The most notable exceptions on the list include Jennie Thompson, who peaked 6 years after winning her first junior national title in 1992, Nastia Liukin, who arguably peaked 5 years after her coming out party in 2003, and Dominique Moceanu, who peaked 4 years after hers in 1994. I say Nastia Liukin’s peak was arguable because many might say that Nastia Liukin appeared to have two separate peaks in her career – the first in 2005 and the second in 2008. I actually agree with this argument. She did appear to be in a peak competitive form at the 2005 worlds in Melbourne, Australia (where she won gold on bars and beam, silver on floor, and essentially tied for first in the all-around but was given the silver). After a two-year trough, she then returned to peak form in 2008 with new skills on bars, beam, and floor. I put 2008 in our chart because it’s hard to argue that the year she won the Olympic all-around title wasn’t her peak, but in reality, I think she had two.
Here’s a look at all four routines from Kyla Ross at this weekend’s Junior Pan American Games:
Kyla Ross Vault 2009 Junior Pan Am Games
Kyla Ross Bars 2009 Junior Pan Am Games
Kyla Ross Beam 2009 Junior Pan Am Games
Kyla Ross Floor 2009 Junior Pan Am Games
I gotta be honest…it looks like she’s on the fast track towards her peak. She’s showing that uncanny competitive sparkle that typically surfaces two years before peak form. That beam routine was absolutely rock solid, her vault is one of the best double fulls in the world, and her floor is rapidly maturing. Bars needs some work, but I imagine that will come over the next two years. It’s too bad she won’t be able to compete in 2011, because that would be a tremendously valuable experience for her as she prepares for 2012. Maybe the FIG will wise up and change this ridiculous age rule that prevents gymnasts from competing at the world level at the hottest and most exciting time of their careers, which is between the ages of 14 and 16. But I’m afraid that probably won’t happen, because after all, that would make entirely too much sense.
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
You average the peak age to be 15.7 years.
If we're going to get picky here, Kyla will be 15.5 years during the London olympics.
She seems consistent and very talented, and I would not be worried for her at all if I hadn't known she was from Gym-Max and therefore compared her with Tessa Pama's story.
Then again, you can't base your feelings about a gym on one particular gymnast.
I guess will see what happens, I for one hope that Kyla becomes a great senior.
By Jojo on
Monday, November 09, 2009 3:06 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
This is a bit off topic but - that beam routine had to be one of the most boring I've ever seen. Yeah, it had lots of "tricks" in it - tons of them. And she did them all very, very well. But out of that whole routine, what, like 7 seconds were spent on "dance" and artistry? Seriously, she didn't even have any interesting poses or arm flicks, forget anything remotely original or beautiful. What's the point of even waving her arms or kicking her leg in between the skills? With as little as she did, she might as well just leave all that out and do skill, skill, skill, leap, skill. Wouldn't have made much difference. It seems like the only reason she even bothered to include the little that she did was just to be able to say "look, it's a routine - really!" It was awful, really just awful.
More on topic, I would disagree with Dominique Moceanu being at peak form in 1998. I don't think winning the Goodwill Games = a peak. I'd say '95 was her peak, winning the US champs and taking 5th AA and silver on beam at worlds.
By L.P. on
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 1:09 AM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
This is a bit off topic but - that beam routine had to be one of the most boring I've ever seen. Yeah, it had lots of "tricks" in it - tons of them. And she did them all very, very well. But out of that whole routine, what, like 7 seconds were spent on "dance" and artistry? Seriously, she didn't even have any interesting poses or arm flicks, forget anything remotely original or beautiful. What's the point of even waving her arms or kicking her leg in between the skills? With as little as she did, she might as well just leave all that out and do skill, skill, skill, leap, skill. Wouldn't have made much difference. It seems like the only reason she even bothered to include the little that she did was just to be able to say "look, it's a routine - really!" It was awful, really just awful.
More on topic, I would disagree with Dominique Moceanu being at peak form in 1998. I don't think winning the Goodwill Games = a peak. I'd say '95 was her peak, winning the US champs and taking 5th AA and silver on beam at worlds.
By L.P. on
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 2:34 AM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
I do agree with you on Kyla Ross's beam routine. But of course remember that my code of points would reflect this lack of artistry and originality!
Interesting opinion on Dominique Moceanu...I felt her 1998 form was by far her most polished. It was nearly impossible to find a form break anywhere in her gymnastics, whereas in 1995 I remembered her at least having some issues with toe point on bars and some little things on beam as well. She also just had a much more mature style in 1998 that was more consistent with a peak. She also had improved her difficulty on all events, including an amazing laid-out Cuervo on vault.
Maybe I'll have to do a post on that one to get everyone's opinion!
By Andy T on
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 10:04 AM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
may i ask you.......what is your definition of peaking for a gymnast..????...just curiosity.
By TGymCoach on
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 1:00 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
i do not think nastia liukin had two peaks. i think it only appears that way because of her injury. she had upgraded routines at 2006 nationals from 2005. she got injured just before worlds, without which she would likely have won a handful of medals. in 2007 she was still coming back from that injury, and in 2008 she was finally back, albeit with altered routines to cater to her ankle.
By alexandrite105 on
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 4:41 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
So we're assuming that history is predetermined and coaching methods have NO impact on when a gymnast peaks? That with "smarter" and more targeted training this "schedule" can't be modified? Looking at this list, it's clear that the Karolyi-type method was hugely successful for a number of years, it's really not the only way, or even necessarily the best way. I think the success of older athletes abroad is a testimony to the existence of alternative pathways, even ones allow for more longevity in the sport.
As for Kyla Ross in particular, she did win juniors this year at under 13, but I like that she's not chucking the most difficulty out there. There's clearly room for growth and she's only doing tricks that she looks totally comfortable with and prepared for. She's a tremendously clean gymnast and a heck of a competitor, I'm hoping she'll be around for many years to come.
By Leo on
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 8:49 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
Kyla is a junior. 12 years old. Critizing her for anything right now is a waste.
I also should point out that her routines from the classic compared to her routines from the junior pan am's show improvement. Imagine what she will improve on in 3 years?
Zmeskal peaked in 91 not 92
By lol on
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 5:39 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
I debated whether to put 1991 or 1992 for Zmeskal. Obviously her best all-around result was in 1991...but then I considered several things:
1. She won both the world floor and beam title in 1992
2. Her tumbling was significantly stronger in 1992 vs. 1991...whip through to double layout and piked full-in dismount at Olympic Trials. A the Olympics her stress fracture forced her to water back down on the difficulty.
3. Her vaults in 1992 were also more powerful (at least prior to the Olympics). Watch her at the 1992 USA's and Olympic Trials - biggest ones she ever did.
4. She did have the highest AA total in the team optionals at the Olympics, even when not in her best form.
By Andy T on
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 9:04 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
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By rae on
Sunday, November 22, 2009 5:26 PM
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Re: Can we use the history books to predict when Kyla Ross will peak? Watch her routines from this weekend and decide for yourself!
I think it's hard to compare gymnasts who were competing in era with different age restrictions.
As for Dominique Moceanau she probably would have hit her peak in 1996 had she not had a stress fracture from over training. (Karyoli methods you know)
As for Nastia, I think she really had the advantage in coaching. Had she not been coached by her father she probably would have been cast aside/ignored a lot more after her ankle injury in 2006 and not reached her peak in 2008. In some gyms Injured athletes often get the short stick by their coaches as a way of playing mind games with them or just becuase they would rather ignore injured athletes instead of encouraging an injured one to recuperate properly.
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