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Men's World Team Analysis…Chris Cameron vs. Kevin Tan

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Jonathan Horton

Danell Leyva

Chris Brooks

Brandon Wynn

Chris Cameron

Steven Legendre

I think they picked a good one.  There were so many different ways they could have gone, and I’m really glad they went with these six.  In fact, the six they chose was the exact six I had ORIGINALLY picked after Day 1…it wasn’t until after Day 2 that I decided to switch out Cameron for Kevin Tan.  Here is why I did:

Chris Cameron and Kevin Tan bring the same two events to this team – rings and pommel horse.  Chris Cameron scored higher on pommel horse, while Kevin Tan scored higher on rings.  Let’s take a look at their scores on these events:

Chris Cameron Kevin Tan
Pommel Horse Day 1 14.85 14.0
Pommel Horse Day 2 14.4 14.1
Rings Day 1 14.75 14.95

(with a fall on dismount)

Rings Day 2 15.1 16.0
Total Points 59.1 59.05

Since either one of them – if on the world team – would certainly be needed to compete on BOTH pommel horse and rings, we can simply take their scores on these events and add them up.  Their total points would theoretically represent the value that each would bring to the team.  Interestingly, their totals are almost identical, Cameron at 59.1 and Tan at 59.05…WOW!

But there’s just one catch.  Kevin Tan FELL on his rings dismount in Day 1 and lost an entire point, and we can assume that had a lot to do with injuring his ankle on a high bar dismount.  Rings is not exactly an event where we should expect our guys to fall – especially a guy like Kevin Tan who has world and Olympic experience and an international reputation.  His 16.0 on Day 2 is MUCH more representative of what he actually brings to the team, and that would certainly make him the more “mathematically” valuable of the two.  It’s also important to consider D-scores and scoring potential…Tan’s rings D-scores were both 7.1, while Cameron’s were 6.3 and 6.1.  That’s a big difference in scoring potential.  On pommel horse, the two essentially have identical D-scores – 5.8 and 5.9 for Tan, and 5.8 both days for Cameron.  Although Cameron outscored him, Tan could very likely score higher than he did here, and he has competed in world and Olympic team finals on pommel horse before (though he did miss in Beijing).  It’s very risky to put a lot of stock in pommel horse anyway – particularly on our team – while putting stock in our rings lineup will surely reap big rewards because it’s such a stable event.  The truth is that even if Cameron DOES hit pommel horse in Rotterdam, Kevin Tan could have brought more with his rings score, and it would have been much more assured.

Having said that, I’m a huge fan of Chris Cameron’s and in fact have been pushing for him to make this world team for some time now.  He is an awesome gymnast and has had a phenomenal year…I think he’ll be a great team player and really valuable asset.

I’m so excited the committee was smart enough to look past Legendre’s fall on floor on Day 1 and still put him on the team.  He could medal on both floor and vault at worlds, and could bring two huge scores to the team total.  He also had a tremendous all-around effort on Day 2, and in fact scored the second highest total of the meet with a 90.05.

A medal in Rotterdam is absolutely possible…what color could it be?

2 Comments

  1. Ono No Komachi August 17, 2010 at 2:07 am - Reply

    Cameron is numerically further ahead of Tan than the above analysis indicates. Tan’s actual D score on rings is not 7.1, it’s 6.8. He received 0.3 x 2 in “bonus” and his E score on his inverted crosses were judged more leniently than they would be under normal FIG scoring.

    Cameron did not receive bonus on any routine.

    Additionally, Cameron is capable of higher difficulty on PH than his SV at VISAs indicates. He has successfully performed routines of up to 6.2 difficulty more than once – has Tan ever started that high?

    That USAG bonus system has got to go.

    The reasoning behind it has never been explained, although my guess is that it is in place to ensure athletes with high D scores are more likely to win a place on the National Team.

    As the gymnasts will not compete under this system anywhere outside the US borders, I don’t see the point. All it does is confuse people.

  2. Flipforward August 18, 2010 at 12:34 pm - Reply

    This is true. Orozco wasn’t placed on the national team. His petition was denied. It will be hard for him to continue his level of training without the funding but I’m sure he and his coaches will find a way. It was not solely based on his injury though. Most had to do with if the committee felt he had the potential to be placed on a squad for a major competition. I guess that they felt they had the guys that they needed and a few extra already. I think if he can get healthy and maybe clean up some form he will be a factor on a senior national team.

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